Logic/Probability Question - Chevelle Tech
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post #1 of 6 (permalink) Old Mar 24th, 19, 9:42 PM Thread Starter
 
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Logic/Probability Question

Two weeks ago I bought a 64 SS convertible with a 250 horse 327 and PG. It has Goldwood yellow paint and black trim, power steering, power top, factory air and built July 64 in KC. I know the only thing we can absolutely document in numbers is that 9559 US units were sold in model #5867. My question: Do we have any logic/probability/statistics experts out there who could estimate the likely number of cars like this that were produced? Maybe factor in popular colors trending in 64, percentage of cars with PG, and factory air sold across the board by Chevrolet. I know it isn't scientific but might help with knowing about how many "matching builds" this car has.

Thanks
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post #2 of 6 (permalink) Old Mar 26th, 19, 11:10 AM
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Dave
 
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Re: Logic/Probability Question

There is really no way to know. The best guess would be to look at this Chevelle Stuff page and make your own determination. Good luck.
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post #3 of 6 (permalink) Old Mar 30th, 19, 1:55 AM
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Tony
 
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Re: Logic/Probability Question

I agree with David, but I also look at it a specific way too...


IMO, despite being a convertible, I think A/C was likely more common than for hardtops, etc. A convertible was probably more likely to be a well optioned "cruiser", so I think options like the automatic trans would be more common on a convertible. Same for A/C... And with auto and A/C, I'd guess most of those probably had power steering and power tops too...


Built in July, so probably ordered in May or June, and being Springtime, probably more convertibles built around that time frame...


Right off the bat, Goldwood Yellow was the second rarest color for 1964, with only about 6800 cars painted that color... But probably more common for hardtops and converts to be painted that color than a 4-door, etc...

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post #4 of 6 (permalink) Old Mar 30th, 19, 6:32 AM
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Re: Logic/Probability Question

The only thing I can add is that statistically the probability is represented as " 1 in 100" or .01%. Then we multiply the probabilities together to get the final ( and the % shrinks). We'll need total production figures to do that. Yet, all in all its only a samplng technique so one can say there eg, " there is a 15% chance another car like this exists" without actually knowing.

Long way of saying Tony and Dave got it right. We can estimate, but we can never know, until we know.

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post #5 of 6 (permalink) Old Mar 30th, 19, 9:06 AM
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autumngold
 
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Re: Logic/Probability Question

You can use the chevelle stuff site to approximate by process of elimination .for example.i have a 1970 chevelle ss 454 ls5. 4298 made.Mines an auto th 400,so 2149 made autos. 15 different colors in 1970.Mines autumn gold so 143 autumngold made.Mines a bucket seat car with floor console,so 71 made.Non stripe car with non functioning cowl induction.35 made. Now if you break down that it has vo1 heavy duty cooling and no ac,washer jar monitor,8 track player,green interior,tilt wheel,interior light options.Has a build sheet,numbers matching with pop and ,you get my point.Cars probably only one left in the world like it.This is just an approximation ,no real way to tell but you can narrow down its rarity.Probably made more red and black cars than gold.no definitive numbers but its just a little insight into your vehicles production numbers in general when your bored and have a little time on your hands.Its an excellent site .

1970 ls-5 numbers matching
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post #6 of 6 (permalink) Old Apr 8th, 19, 9:14 PM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Logic/Probability Question

Thanks for the responses. I went back to Chevellestuff and dug a little deeper. Here is what I found so far:

RPO CO6 Folding Power Top 41% of all convertibles
" C60 Air Conditioning 9% of all Chevelles
L30 327 V8 6% of all Chevelles
M35 P/G tranny 65% of all Chevelles
N40 Power steering 30% of all Chevelles
U60 Manual radio 14% of all Chevelles
Z01 Comfort & convenience 50% of all Malibu

Goldwood yellow (exclusive to SS model) 9% of all SS units

No idea how many Black interiors with Black tops

So, you are all right. It is a guessing game after that!
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